A new analysis of US Census Bureau data reveals a significant societal shift: a record 25% of 40-year-olds have never walked down the aisle. This represents a notable increase from 20% in 2010, according to the Pew Research Center's analysis of 2021 Census data. Furthermore, a majority of these individuals are living solo, with only 22% of never-married adults aged 40 to 44 reporting cohabitation with a partner.

This trend has been steadily growing since 1980 when just 6% of 40-year-olds had never married. The data indicates that this shift impacts men more than women, and disproportionately affects Black 40-year-olds compared to other ethnicities. Educational attainment also appears to be a factor, with those lacking a four-year college degree less likely to have married by 40.

Pew Senior Researcher Richard Fry highlighted the impact of higher education. While a greater percentage of 40-year-olds now hold bachelor's degrees compared to 1980 (39% vs. 18%), this increase in educational attainment hasn't reversed the overall trend of delaying or forgoing marriage.

The Pew analysis, examining marriage rate changes among 40-year-olds from 1850 to 2021, suggests a growing trend of postponing or opting out of marriage entirely among individuals born during or after the 1960s. This aligns with findings from the University of Virginia’s National Marriage Project, which observed an increase in the median age of first marriage over the past five decades.

Interestingly, marrying later doesn't necessarily equate to greater marital satisfaction. The National Marriage Project's report indicated higher satisfaction rates among those who married earlier. Fry suggests that focusing on 40-year-olds is relevant because this age often prompts individuals to reflect on life choices, particularly concerning family planning and the link between marriage and fertility.

Historically, fewer than one in five adults remained unmarried by 40 in previous generations. However, Fry emphasizes that not marrying by 40 doesn't preclude future marriage. Data suggests that a significant portion of those unmarried at 40 eventually marry by 60.

This trend coincides with a broader pattern of young adults delaying key life milestones, including full-time employment, financial independence, living independently, and parenthood, as highlighted in a separate Pew report. This shift occurs against a backdrop of declining birth and marriage rates in the US. The CDC recently reported a slight decrease in births in 2022 compared to 2021, and record-low birth rates for teens and young women.