In a surprising turn of events, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin abruptly ordered his mercenary forces to cease their advance on Moscow and return to Ukraine, claiming a desire to "prevent bloodshed." This decision followed reports that the group had progressed to within 120 miles of the Russian capital. Experts weigh in on the potential motivations behind this unexpected reversal.

Former CIA station chief Dan Hoffman suggests Prigozhin likely reassessed his chances of success in Moscow and determined the risks were too high. "It's clear Prigozhin evaluated the situation and concluded the odds were not in his favor if he continued toward Moscow," Hoffman stated. He also noted that Prigozhin's actions have undoubtedly made him an enemy of Russian President Vladimir Putin. "Taking control of the Rostov military district, as he did, leaves no doubt about that," Hoffman added.

The Belarusian President's office announced a deal brokered with Prigozhin following discussions with Putin. Reportedly, Prigozhin agreed to halt his forces' advance in exchange for security guarantees for Wagner Group members. This agreement followed Prigozhin's public accusations against Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, alleging a missile strike on Wagner encampments in Ukraine. The Russian Defense Ministry denied these accusations.

Despite the global attention garnered by the Wagner Group's clash with the Russian military establishment, experts like Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, believe the impact on the conflict in Ukraine will be minimal. "I don't anticipate a significant change in the battlefield dynamics. A different scenario would be if a civil war erupted, forcing Putin to withdraw troops from Ukraine to quell the internal conflict," Kupchan explained.

Prigozhin, in earlier communications, vehemently denounced the alleged attack, labeling it an act of "injustice" and vowing to halt those he deemed responsible. He insisted that his actions were not a military coup, but a "march for justice." Following these events, Russia’s National Anti-Terrorism Committee initiated a criminal investigation into Prigozhin on charges of inciting armed rebellion.